Winds of Change Explores Great-Power Rivalry and South Asia’s Strategic Future at Washington’s National Press Club
The challenge is not simply to navigate great-power rivalry, but to ensure that smaller states retain the freedom to shape their own futures.
NEWS
SAFN
10/17/20262 min read
(Pic L-R: AMB. Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey, Patti Morrissey, Jerome C. Glenn, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera)
MEDIA RELEASE
WASHINGTON, DC | October 17, 2026 The changing geopolitical landscape of South and Southeast Asia, intensifying great-power rivalry, and the strategic challenges facing smaller states were central themes at a discussion of Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, authored by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, on October 9, 2026.
Moderated by Patti Morrissey, founder of Global Foresight Strategies and a former official in the US State Department, Department of Defense, and national intelligence, the discussion featured Jerome C. Glenn of The Millennium Project and Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council. Ambassador Mushfiqul Fazal Ansarey of Bangladesh, National Press Club President Mark Schoeff Jr., and Kathaleen Kennedy, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, were among the distinguished guests.
Michael Kugelman highlighted the timely importance of Winds of Change for Washington’s policy community and beyond, emphasising its relevance to understanding the evolving strategic dynamics of South and Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
Abeyagoonasekera highlighted the growing trust deficit between India and some of its neighbours, drawing on a recorded interview with a former Sri Lankan foreign minister featured in the book concerning alleged Indian intelligence manoeuvres and their implications for Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. The discussion also examined regional perceptions of Hindutva ideology and RSS-linked activities, alongside the need for defence and bilateral agreements to deliver tangible outcomes and mutual benefits.
The discussion explored growing public frustration with established political systems, including Gen-Z mobilisation in India and the emergence of the Cockroach Janatha Party movement. Abeyagoonasekera drew parallels with youth-led political upheavals in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, where public mobilisation has contributed to the downfall of governments.
These developments reflect a wider challenge to political legitimacy across South Asia, as younger generations demand accountability, political renewal, and institutions that respond to their aspirations.
The panel examined China’s expanding influence through trade, economic engagement, and soft-power diplomacy, as well as the geopolitical consequences of the conflict involving Iran and Ukraine. Energy insecurity, vulnerable maritime chokepoints, and the growing militarisation of the Indian Ocean underscore the interconnected risks confronting the region.
Jerome C. Glenn emphasised the importance of building stronger, mutually beneficial and synergetic relationships among South Asian countries to move beyond zero-sum power politics and strengthen regional cooperation.
The discussion reinforced the central argument of Winds of Change: South and Southeast Asia can no longer be understood in isolation. Their futures are increasingly interconnected through great-power competition, domestic political change, economic vulnerabilities, and evolving security alignments.
“The challenge is not simply to navigate great-power rivalry, but to ensure that smaller states retain the freedom to shape their own futures.”
The event highlighted the need to move beyond reactive diplomacy towards anticipatory diplomacy, strengthening regional partnerships and identifying emerging risks before they escalate.
Published by World Scientific, Winds of Change examines the strategic choices confronting South and Southeast Asia at a time of profound geopolitical transformation. ISBN: 978-981-98-3425-9
About the author: Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is Executive Director of the South Asia Foresight Network (SAFN) and a Senior Fellow of The Millennium Project, Washington, DC. He is a geopolitical analyst and author of five books on regional geopolitics, focusing on security, great-power competition, governance, and the Indo-Pacific. He is an active member of the World Economic Forum.
